Retrospective voting in american national elections. Retrospective voting in American national elections (Book, 1981) [georgiajudges.org] 2019-01-22

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Party Identification, Retrospective Voting, and Moderating Elections in a Federal System: West Germany, 1961

retrospective voting in american national elections

This is an advance from Downs, whose theory implies little or no independent role for partisanship. Policymakers must often decide whether to pursue a policy that has uncertain benefi ts. Findings reveal that voting is influenced not only by political differences but also by religious, racial, and economic factors. What discussion of political feasibility that does occur tends to be based less on good information than on the political predispositions of the discussants. Similarly, studies that have relied on survey data have found that voters give more consideration to micro level factors such as family income and unemployment when making judgements about the national economy.

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Economic Retrospective Voting in American National Elections: A Micro

retrospective voting in american national elections

We also show that voters care about campaign violations, and certain violations lower voter support similar to other types of political scandal. Other relevant studies focus on quid pro quo arrangements, including clientelism Wantchekon, 2003;Stokes, 2005 and the 'incumbency advantage' Cruz et al. . Review of Economic Studies, 55, 1- 16. American Political Science Review 75: 436- 47. Cartels only increase their level of violence after successfully bribing political leaders, which implies that local violence levels should increase the longer parties remain in office.

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retrospective voting in american national elections (豆瓣)

retrospective voting in american national elections

Note: In calculating the moving wall, the current year is not counted. Retrospective economic voting theory comprises in its essence a model of vote switching, in which citizens whose economic perceptions changed between two elections are expected to switch votes and thus behave differently than voters with stable perceptions. In response, this article addresses a research question striking at the very heart of the resilience of the democratic capitalist design: Do voters punish elected officials for inequality? American Political Science Review, 89, 1- 17. Objective conditions pointed to a comfortable victory, if not a landslide, but Gore's narrow popular vote margin fell well below the expectations held by many political scientists. Research on the impact of the macro economy on individual-level preferences for redistribution has produced varying results. Typically for economic voting studies, the economy was operationalised through subjective retrospective evaluations as previous findings show that when evaluating incumbent performance, citizens are more influenced by retrospective than prospective considerations Key 1966; Fiorina 1978 ; for more information on operationalising the independent variables, see section 3.

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Retrospective voting in American national elections / Morris P. Fiorina

retrospective voting in american national elections

Latino support for government-provided health insurance in 2012 consistently increased support for the Democratic Party. American Political Science Review, 83, 67- 76. Redistributive policy preferences have received a good deal of attention in political science and economic research. Absorbed: Journals that are combined with another title. However, when the mechanism of democratic accountability is in good health, then citizens maintain their ability to participate in the process of decision-making and help determine national policy.


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Retrospective voting in American national elections / Morris P. Fiorina

retrospective voting in american national elections

Public opinion -- latent, uncrystallized, uncertain though it may be -- looms large in the calculations of politicians. In the United States, the absence of pocketbook voting refers to the prevalence of individualistic values in the society, which determines that citizens are not eager to blame the government for their personal economic misfortune. Cox and Samuel Kernell , 13- 38. The American political economy: Macroeconomics and electoral politics in the United States. The model is based on a running tally of retrospective evaluations of party performances and promises.

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Economic Retrospective Voting in American National Elections: A Micro

retrospective voting in american national elections

When appropriately worded egocentric and sociotropic economic survey items are put in equations predicting political phenomena, both are important. Using a network model, we demonstrate that a more strongly connected attitude networks have a stronger impact on behaviour, and b within any given attitude network, the most central attitude elements have the strongest impact. Economics and the American voter: Past, present, future. In modern democracies voting is generally considered the right of all adult citizens. For example, if the current year is 2008 and a journal has a 5 year moving wall, articles from the year 2002 are available. Short term fluctuations in U. A number of bourgeois states also have residence qualifications.

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Summary of Fiorina: Retrospective Voting in American Elections

retrospective voting in american national elections

And it is this public opinion that sets the bounds of political feasibility. Then, we can use all this to predict which party is more likely to serve our interests best in the future. Determinants of the outcomes of midterm congressional elections. A variance components model of political effects. For the primary explanatory variable, we rely on two measures of economic perceptions: retrospective and prospective. The right to vote is granted, as a rule, only to those citizens subjects who meet the age, residence, and other legal requirements. The recent financial and economic crisis has further accentuated the concerns as to the instability of economic voting.

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Economic Retrospective Voting in American National Elections: A Micro

retrospective voting in american national elections

He does not directly link party identification with vote choice. American Political Science Review, 83, 373- 398. The law of socialist countries has no means for compelling citizens to exercise their voting right. Click the link for more information. In either sense it is a means of transforming numerous individual desires into a coherent and collective basis for decision. However, among the segment of voters with changing perceptions not all voters actually switched votes: voters with tied preference are more likely to actually switch votes than voters whose preference structure is biased towards the incumbent Labour party.

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